About Rod D. Martin
Praise for Rod D. Martin
Book Rod to Speak
Politics & Economics
Technology & Markets
Faith & Cultureby Rod D. Martin
February 8, 2012
WHERE STANDS THE RACE? Quite simply, Mitt Romney is now anything but inevitable.
First, it’s important to understand what didn’t happen yesterday. Rick Santorum ran mostly against…no one. Neither frontrunner (Newt or Mitt) contested any of yesterday’s three states. They literally didn’t show up, much less meaningfully compete (Newt, for instance, spent all of yesterday in Ohio). And if they both had, each of these states probably would have looked like Nevada.
What’s more, these were relatively high-cost, low-benefit races. Missouri’s “primary” was a beauty contest which awarded precisely zero delegates: those will be selected at a later caucus, more than a month from now. Minnesota and Colorado were seen as locks for Romney (based on a variety of factors) and not worth contesting given the need to marshall resources for Super Tuesday.
At least that was the reasoning going in.
What Rick Santorum did last night is prove the truth of the old adage that 90% of success is just showing up. He vigorously contested all three states, and won big: 40% in Colorado, 45% in Minnesota, and a whopping 55% in Missouri. This mirrors his surge in Iowa — largely based on having spent the most time in the most counties — and for that matter, at our own NFRA Presidential Endorsing Convention, which he worked harder than any of the guys who lost. Rick Santorum WORKS. And in caucus states especially, work produces wins.
The Gingrich calculus — mirroring all the wise heads and media pundits — was that no amount of work could beat Romney on this turf, so the best thing was to take the losses and move on. But it turns out that Romney is soft everywhere. No one wants Mitt Romney except that nagging 27% or so: conservatives are still begging for an alternative. Rick Santorum gave them one last night and he ran off with three states. Newt Gingrich could have had those three states but punted, which may prove to be the biggest mistake of the entire 2012 campaign.
Now Santorum will appear to be the front-runner, sort of. Many on the right will paint him as the man to beat Romney, which he plainly is not: three default wins on zero money does not a nominee make. Getting behind him now guarantees a Romney victory. But that won’t be obvious for a while.
At the same time, Newt took a much bigger pounding last night than in both Florida and Nevada combined. By allowing Santorum to seem viable, he greatly undercuts his own position, and crucially, his ability to unify the right. Everything now becomes harder for him, and Super Tuesday becomes even more vital than before.
Finally, there’s Mitt Romney. When — for whatever reason — he isn’t able or willing to carpet bomb his opponents with negative ads, he loses, big. He clearly hasn’t closed the sale with conservatives, or even Republicans broadly (but I repeat myself): he is anything but the frontrunner, anything but inevitable. It is now all-too-apparent that the only thing keeping him in any sort of lead is cash and the division of the real conservatives. But either of those things could be healed in an instant. His only hope is to aggravate all divisions.
That’s not a winning formula for November. A divided GOP means low turnout and an Obama/AFL-CIO/MoveOn/SEIU/ACORN win. The other team will be playing its A-game. Romney must do more than just beat his opponents: he must unite the party. Simply pulling out a win will not do that.
So Santorum is king for a day. Newt can recover, but clearly made a life-threatening strategic mistake in failing to fight yesterday.
Romney, however, is on life-support, whether he realizes it or not. Inevitability is over; but even more to the point, the depths of antipathy toward him — with all that means for November — are laid bare. The question is whether he realizes what he needs to do to have any hope of truly closing the sale; and even more important, whether conservatives can get their act together and unite. If they do, there’s nothing Mitt — or Obama — can do to recover from that.
(The preceding was originally a Facebook status update.)
Rod D. Martin is a leading futurist, technology entrepreneur, author and activist from Destin, Florida. He was part of PayPal’s pre-IPO startup team, serving as special counsel to founder and CEO Peter Thiel, and also served as policy director to former Governor Mike Huckabee. He is Founder and CEO of The Martin Organization, whose portfolio of companies includes Galectin Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GALT), Advanced Search Laboratories, Proxomo Software, Agincourt Ventures and the 10 X Fund. His charitable and church work is central to all he does, and he further engages our culture as President of the National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA), as founder of The Vanguard Project, as a widely sought-after speaker and as author of such books as his forthcoming The Imperative of Excellence.
Rod is one of our nation’s leading minds. He’s smart, original, and very committed—a combination that one rarely finds.
Rod Martin and [former Howard Dean campaign manager] Joe Trippi are America’s two foremost experts on online politics.
Rod Martin is a Reaganite-Thatcherite conservative…[and] a man who has spent much of his life ministering to and working for the benefit of others. I know Rod as an advocate for freedom, a leader who understands the real changes we need in Washington, and who has the drive and ability to make those changes happen.
Rod Martin is the kind of dynamic leader who has the knowledge, ability and experience to lead us successfully into the 21st Century. His vision for America is compelling.
Rod Martin literally wrote the book on excellence. Humble yet brilliant, a man of love and compassion, with penetrating clarity he illuminates the world around us, and we are both stirred and enlightened.
Rod Martin is a born leader and an outstanding political mind. Anyone who takes him on is going to have a serious fight on their hands.
Rod Martin is a man of uncommon vision and character. Ever since I first worked alongside Rod in the early days of PayPal, I’ve been struck by his powerful vision for the future. Rod understands the intersection of technology, politics and culture in a way that few others do.
Rod Martin wears with uncommon grace an uncanny ability to link his vigorous faith to the practical challenges of both the business world and the political arena. Yet the respect he shows for others carries a warmth and modesty that are both too rare among those who are strong advocates of feisty positions.
America badly needs more leaders who really get the future. We need more Rod Martins.
Rod Martin is a modern day philosopher-statesman. He is a capitalist intellectual, a conservative iconoclast, a gentle adversary and a kind prophet. He inspires us towards a fresh national vision built upon the original founding principles.
Rod Martin is not only effective and efficient, but he is also perceptive, wise and gracious. He gets things done. He is a great friend and a great ally.
Rod is one of the sharpest, most gracious men I know, and one of the most gifted political thinkers today. His ability to analyze issues and communicate thoughtful insights on them have earned him the respect of people across the political spectrum.
I am proud to have been Rod Martin’s friend for a quarter century, and I can tell you that he is one of the finest men and most outstanding leaders in our church and in our country today. He has a knack for turning everything he touches to success.
Rod Martin is a cornucopian entrepreneur and eutropic thinker whose influence radiates through an array of companies, institutions, movements and churches. A renaissance American, he is also a prolific friend of freedom and faith around the globe.
If Rod Martin represents the next generation of leaders, America has nothing to worry about.
A leader and a servant, in public life and in private, Rod Martin strides at the top of his profession, and has nowhere to go but up. He is in the truest sense of the word ‘outstanding’.
Rod Martin is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished thought leaders today. He is a wonderful mentor, a humble role model, and a deep inspiration for the next generation of scientific innovators and entrepreneurs.
Rod’s achievements pale beside his character and his brilliance. He sees what others can’t. He leads when others won’t.
Rod Martin is one of America’s finest young minds.