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by Rod D. Martin
October 4, 2018
ANOTHER SENATE UPDATE: Yesterday I told you that North Dakota is now likely out of reach for Democrats, with Republican Kevin Cramer now beating incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by an incredible 12 points: 53% to 41%.
Generally speaking, if an incumbent is under 50%, they’re in serious trouble even if they’re leading. And generally speaking, if a challenger is above 50%, the incumbent is toast.
Now, two new big moves. John McLaughlin has Dem incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) down by 8 points, 52-44. That race has been tied for most of the last several months, and this polling tracks with what I told you earlier this week about the moves we’re seeing among married women strongly against the Democrats.
But elsewhere, New Jersey is now legitimately a tossup. This from FiveThirtyEight, which cites new polls from Fairleigh Dickinson (43-37) as well as Vox Populi (which has it a 4-point race) and Stockton University (which has it a 2-point race), all of which have the race within low single digits and/or the margin of error. Oh, and 22% remain undecided, which is terrible news for the incumbent.
This is quite different from the picture you get from RCP, by the way, which highlights one of the more glaring limitations of RCP (something I pointed out several times to you two years ago).
Menendez (D-NJ) won this seat by 19.5% six years ago, and wasn’t supposed to be in any trouble this time, so whether or not he actually loses in 2018, there’s a potential upset here that is illustrative that the broader national picture is not as has been presented, and that the fake Kavanaugh scandal has proved a huge miscalculation for the Democrats. Moreover, money the Dems were hoping to spend on Beto (a no-hoper, despite their best efforts) and in actual swing states may have to be diverted to save this supposedly safe seat.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Vox Populi has McSally (R-AZ) leading for the first time in…ever? (I’d have to check, but it seems like ever.) McSally 52, Sinema 49. Close, but the undecideds seem to be breaking our way. In Nevada, Heller’s down but within the margin of error. And in Tennessee, Blackburn’s up 5 points (not the first time, just seems like it), a complete reversal from two weeks ago.
Oh, and in Florida? That much-vaunted Bill Nelson (D-FL) 7-point lead Quinnipiac claimed two weeks ago is down to one point or less in three separate polls these last two days: St. Pete Polls (47-47), Strategic Research (45-44) and Mason-Dixon (47-46). Note that in all three, Nelson is under 50%: indeed, that Q poll two weeks ago is the only one I can remember where he’s been above 50.
One other point. If we’re really seeing the enthusiasm surge among Republicans that NPR and Fox both reported yesterday — in NPR’s words, the enthusiasm gap as “evaporated” — then everyone’s Likely Voter model may have just become obsolete. And if that’s true — if — these numbers may all undercount Republicans, potentially by a lot. I’m not telling you that’s true: I’m telling you it’s something we need to pay attention to.
These are big developments. I’ll keep you posted.
— Big Developments: Election 2018 originally appeared as a Facebook post by Rod D. Martin.
Rod is one of our nation’s leading minds. He’s smart, original, and very committed—a combination that one rarely finds.
Rod Martin and [former Howard Dean campaign manager] Joe Trippi are America’s two foremost experts on online politics.
Rod Martin is a Reaganite-Thatcherite conservative…[and] a man who has spent much of his life ministering to and working for the benefit of others. I know Rod as an advocate for freedom, a leader who understands the real changes we need in Washington, and who has the drive and ability to make those changes happen.
Rod Martin is the kind of dynamic leader who has the knowledge, ability and experience to lead us successfully into the 21st Century. His vision for America is compelling.
Rod Martin literally wrote the book on excellence. Humble yet brilliant, a man of love and compassion, with penetrating clarity he illuminates the world around us, and we are both stirred and enlightened.
Rod Martin is a born leader and an outstanding political mind. Anyone who takes him on is going to have a serious fight on their hands.
Rod Martin is a man of uncommon vision and character. Ever since I first worked alongside Rod in the early days of PayPal, I’ve been struck by his powerful vision for the future. Rod understands the intersection of technology, politics and culture in a way that few others do.
Rod Martin wears with uncommon grace an uncanny ability to link his vigorous faith to the practical challenges of both the business world and the political arena. Yet the respect he shows for others carries a warmth and modesty that are both too rare among those who are strong advocates of feisty positions.
America badly needs more leaders who really get the future. We need more Rod Martins.
Rod Martin is a modern day philosopher-statesman. He is a capitalist intellectual, a conservative iconoclast, a gentle adversary and a kind prophet. He inspires us towards a fresh national vision built upon the original founding principles.
Rod Martin is not only effective and efficient, but he is also perceptive, wise and gracious. He gets things done. He is a great friend and a great ally.
Rod is one of the sharpest, most gracious men I know, and one of the most gifted political thinkers today. His ability to analyze issues and communicate thoughtful insights on them have earned him the respect of people across the political spectrum.
I am proud to have been Rod Martin’s friend for a quarter century, and I can tell you that he is one of the finest men and most outstanding leaders in our church and in our country today. He has a knack for turning everything he touches to success.
Rod Martin is a cornucopian entrepreneur and eutropic thinker whose influence radiates through an array of companies, institutions, movements and churches. A renaissance American, he is also a prolific friend of freedom and faith around the globe.
If Rod Martin represents the next generation of leaders, America has nothing to worry about.
A leader and a servant, in public life and in private, Rod Martin strides at the top of his profession, and has nowhere to go but up. He is in the truest sense of the word ‘outstanding’.
Rod Martin is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished thought leaders today. He is a wonderful mentor, a humble role model, and a deep inspiration for the next generation of scientific innovators and entrepreneurs.
Rod’s achievements pale beside his character and his brilliance. He sees what others can’t. He leads when others won’t.
Rod Martin is one of America’s finest young minds.
