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Final Pre-Election Update
The party in the White House usually loses 28 House seats in the President’s first midterm (12 if you factor out the outliers of 1994, 2002 and 2010). Republicans have also suffered 39 retirements in the House this year, creating way too many open seats. It’s a tough year, and as I’ve said from the beginning, if Republicans can match Democrat voter enthusiasm, we can hold the House and dramatically expand our majority in the Senate.
There’s a lot of reason to hope for that this morning. Republicans historically win the House at D+5 on the Generic Ballot. Rasmussen — the most accurate poll of 2016 — has us at R+1. Morning Consult has D+3, Harris has D+6. A lot of other polls have it worse; but they also had it worse two years ago.
We’ll see.
Race-by-race it gets grimmer. I think we could very easily lose 34 House seats. But if Rasmussen is closer to the truth on the generic ballot than most other numbers suggest, we could also hold that to 19 loses and thus keep the majority. I won’t go into all those details here. I’ll just say what I said at the outset: go vote. And take friends.
On the Senate side:
1. Trafalgar Group (the other best poll of 2016) has Jon Tester (D-MT) down to just a 1-point lead. That race has been winnable but just out of reach all year. But today we could pick it up.
2. Trafalgar also has Ted Cruz (R-TX) up 9 points. Beto will have to try again (and thanks for sucking up all that Dem cash, buddy).
3. Mitchell Research has Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) down to a 3-point lead over John James (R-MI), which is within the margin of error; and Change Research has it down to 2. I doubt that’s accurate, but it’s exciting: Stabenow is terrible, James is fantastic, and this is a race we didn’t expect could be close.
4. Three polls in the last 24 hours have Martha McSally (R-AZ) up, three more have her down, all by an average of 1 point.
5. Rick Scott (R-FL) always pulls it out by about 1.5 points. Right now he’s down an average of 2.4, but Trafalgar has him up by 2. (Trafalgar also has Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum by 3, but they’re the only ones who do.)
6. Mike Braun (R-IN) and incumbent Joe Donnelly (D-IN) are back-and-forth within the margin of error.
7. Three polls yesterday have Josh Hawley (R-MO) beating the awful incumbent Claire McCaskill (D-MO), including Harris which had him down most of the past week.
8. Both Harris and Trafalgar also have incumbent Dean Heller (R-NV) pulling out a win, which will be a minor miracle.
9. Stick a fork in Heidi Heitkamp (D-SD): she’s done.
10. Ditto Phil Bredesen (D-TN). Barring an upset, Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)has this.
11. Finally, Joe Manchin (D-WV) will probably pull it out, but it’s now close enough that a last-minute surge by Patrick Morrisey (R-WV) could upend him.
If we have an especially good night, that means we might pick up a net-6 Senate seats (assuming we split the difference on Montana and West Virginia), for a new majority of 57 (the GOP’s modern high being 55). If we lose both Montana and West Virginia (likely), plus either of Arizona and Nevada, plus either of Florida or Indiana, that makes it 54, which would still be great compared to our current 51. Obviously it could get worse, but it’s nearly impossible for me to see how we actually lose the Senate.
Losing the House would be terrible. But keeping — or even expanding — our Senate majority means lots more conservative judges, and that really is the ballgame.
I’ll be live-Facebooking tonight: join me at: facebook.com/RodDMartin.
And vote. Vote now. And take friends.
You can read about the world anywhere. You come to RodMartin.org to understand it.
For Freedom,
Rod is one of our nation’s leading minds. He’s smart, original, and very committed—a combination that one rarely finds.
Rod Martin and [former Howard Dean campaign manager] Joe Trippi are America’s two foremost experts on online politics.
Rod Martin is a Reaganite-Thatcherite conservative…[and] a man who has spent much of his life ministering to and working for the benefit of others. I know Rod as an advocate for freedom, a leader who understands the real changes we need in Washington, and who has the drive and ability to make those changes happen.
Rod Martin is the kind of dynamic leader who has the knowledge, ability and experience to lead us successfully into the 21st Century. His vision for America is compelling.
Rod Martin literally wrote the book on excellence. Humble yet brilliant, a man of love and compassion, with penetrating clarity he illuminates the world around us, and we are both stirred and enlightened.
Rod Martin is a born leader and an outstanding political mind. Anyone who takes him on is going to have a serious fight on their hands.
Rod Martin is a man of uncommon vision and character. Ever since I first worked alongside Rod in the early days of PayPal, I’ve been struck by his powerful vision for the future. Rod understands the intersection of technology, politics and culture in a way that few others do.
Rod Martin wears with uncommon grace an uncanny ability to link his vigorous faith to the practical challenges of both the business world and the political arena. Yet the respect he shows for others carries a warmth and modesty that are both too rare among those who are strong advocates of feisty positions.
America badly needs more leaders who really get the future. We need more Rod Martins.
Rod Martin is a modern day philosopher-statesman. He is a capitalist intellectual, a conservative iconoclast, a gentle adversary and a kind prophet. He inspires us towards a fresh national vision built upon the original founding principles.
Rod Martin is not only effective and efficient, but he is also perceptive, wise and gracious. He gets things done. He is a great friend and a great ally.
Rod is one of the sharpest, most gracious men I know, and one of the most gifted political thinkers today. His ability to analyze issues and communicate thoughtful insights on them have earned him the respect of people across the political spectrum.
I am proud to have been Rod Martin’s friend for a quarter century, and I can tell you that he is one of the finest men and most outstanding leaders in our church and in our country today. He has a knack for turning everything he touches to success.
Rod Martin is a cornucopian entrepreneur and eutropic thinker whose influence radiates through an array of companies, institutions, movements and churches. A renaissance American, he is also a prolific friend of freedom and faith around the globe.
If Rod Martin represents the next generation of leaders, America has nothing to worry about.
A leader and a servant, in public life and in private, Rod Martin strides at the top of his profession, and has nowhere to go but up. He is in the truest sense of the word ‘outstanding’.
Rod Martin is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished thought leaders today. He is a wonderful mentor, a humble role model, and a deep inspiration for the next generation of scientific innovators and entrepreneurs.
Rod’s achievements pale beside his character and his brilliance. He sees what others can’t. He leads when others won’t.
Rod Martin is one of America’s finest young minds.
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