The Rod Martin Report
The Trump Surge
Foundations and Emails and Indictments, Oh My!
Poll, Debate and Election Rigging
Clinton Personally Plotted Election Violence
Polls, Polls, Polls
The Conclusion of the Matter
“It ain’t over till it’s over.”
How long have we heard that Donald Trump was not only doomed, but 30-points-down doomed? Done deal. Hopeless. Not even worth talking about. Focus on the downballot…
…said all the same people who told you he’d drop out in July of 2015.
I told you otherwise then. I’m not telling you he’ll win today. But I’m telling you he can win. I have been all along.
My batting average this cycle has been vanishingly close to 1.000. Those of you who’ve been around all that time know. So do your friends a favor: encourage them to subscribe to the Rod Martin Report. No matter what happens on Nov. 8, it’s only getting more interesting — and more convoluted — from here.
So let’s start with one for the record books. The Cubs won the Series! It’s the first time in 108 years. A hearty congratulations to Cubbies everywhere.
It’s a good omen for the underdog.
And the underdog is doing mighty well on his own. Here’s the RCP electoral map as of yesterday:
This looks a little better than you were expecting, right? Well that’s because Hillary Clinton has lost 60 electoral votes in one week. Last week she was at 333.
It’s not just RCP. Here’s Nate Silver, who spent a good bit of last year telling everyone who’d listen that Donald Trump had zero chance of winning the Republican nomination:
What does this mean? It means that if this trend holds, and if Trump can win any of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia or New Hampshire plus Maine CD-2, he’s the next President of the United States.
(Silver’s explanation of “Why Clinton’s Position is Worse Than Obama’s” is well worth a read.)
To say Brooklyn is in panic is as big an understatement as to say the Cubs are “happy.”
They’re panicked for another reason:
The highly suspect ABC poll — which has consistently oversampled Democrats by about 9 points (more on that later) — and which had Hillary +12 just over a week and a half ago, now has the race statistically tied.
But worse still for Team Clinton, a marked enthusiasm gap has emerged. Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points among those who are very enthusiastic.
That can’t help but affect turnout.
From the very beginning, I told you: in a race between the two most hated people in the history of major party nominees, the one who can drive the other’s negatives higher is going to win.
Trump was killing this when the focus was on terrorism and immigration. Then Clinton turned the corner by convincing everyone — without good reason, mind you — that Trump was himself the greatest-ever threat to humanity. This was straight out of LBJ’s playbook, and equally dishonest:
Wikileaks evened up the fear and loathing, and Trump began to surge again. Access Hollywood threw things back the other way, and the Democrats did a victory lap…early.
Note what’s consistent in this.
Trump has succeeded when the focus has been on real issues, and on just how terrible Hillary Clinton really is, from her promise to legalize every illegal alien in her first year — and resettle 1 million Syrians across America, literally 99% of them unvetted Muslims — to her pay-to-play schemes at the Clinton Foundation, to her plan to raise over $1 Trillion in new taxes almost immediately and raise the Death Tax to 65%, to Obamacare’s insane premium hikes — happening now — of as much as 116%, with more certain to come.
Indeed, when the focus is on Hillary stacking the Supreme Court with as many as five justices, all ready to shred the First and Second Amendments; when it’s on her evangelizing on national television for the violent dismemberment of full-term infants; yeah, when the focus is on issues, Trump wins.
And likewise, when Clinton is up, the campaign is at its most issue-free. Trump said bad things, eleven years ago. Trump is scary. Trump bad, woman good.
The problem for Hillary this week, of course, is rather as Scott Adams put it:
The current news cycle along with Trump’s supporters have framed Clinton as a low-stamina liar with a drinking problem who is running a criminal enterprise (The Clinton Foundation) that sells influence to foreign countries and companies that are more interested in war than peace. While she trash-talks Putin. That stuff could get all of us killed.
Why yes. Yes it could. And that’s why Trump is surging.
Speaking of Scott Adams, here’s why Hillary seems to be spiraling into what my buddy Rick Shaftan calls the #VortexOfDeath:
And there you thought it was only Trump who didn’t know when to shut up about Alicia Machado.
Comey’s bombshell re-opening of the FBI’s case against Hillary Clinton — as a result of the discovery of over 650,000 previously undisclosed emails on a computer owned by Huma Abedin and her estranged husband Anthony Weiner, under investigation for child porn — is, of course, the impetus for the transformation in Trump’s fortunes.
Abedin had sworn, under penalty of perjury, not once but three times she’d turned over all devices. Perjury will send you to prison; so will lying to the FBI. And that’s the least of Team Clinton’s problems.
Democrats turned furiously on Director Comey…and by Democrats I mean the media, whose stories attacking the FBI director outnumbered stories about Clinton by a whopping 3 to 1.
Ignoring the blatant hypocrisy of these attacks — the entire Media-Democrat Complex just spent the last four months extolling the pristine virtue of the sainted Jim Comey, not to mention this — the problem remains: the FBI did not re-open the case lightly, just 11 days before the election.
The internal dissent at the FBI over Comey’s outrageous June decision to let Clinton off had already reached a fever pitch. Almost 100 agents were threatening to quit even before Hillary got Weinered.
Carl Bernstein, who with Bob Woodward broke the Watergate scandal and who, like Woodward, is no friend of Republicans, quickly opined that the FBI would never re-open the case this way unless the new evidence was “a real bombshell.”
Doug Schoen, Bill Clinton’s longtime pollster, went even further. On Sunday night, he stated on Fox that “I’m a Democrat, and I worked for Bill Clinton, but I can no longer vote for Hillary.”
When you’ve lost Doug Schoen, you’re in very, very deep kimchi.
In Pat Cadell’s words, “the dam is about to break.”
It gets worse.
On Wednesday, Brett Baier broke the news that:
1. The Clinton Foundation “Pay to Play” scandal is about to produce indictments.
2. The emails on Weiner’s computer aren’t duplicates, and likely include classified information originating from Hillary’s home-brew server. Again, on Weiner’s computer. Because that’s safe.
3. FBI sources say with 99% certainty that Hillary Clinton’s server has been hacked by at least five foreign intelligence agencies.
But she‘s the one we’re supposed to trust with the nuclear codes. Which she’ll just sell to China, if China hasn’t hacked them off her server already.
In addition to the Fox bombshell, the Wall Street Journal reports that no fewer than five FBI field offices are now investigating the Clinton Foundation allegations.
It’s so bad that former FBI Assistant Director James Kallstrom, calling the Clinton Foundation “a cesspool,” said that “the Clintons are a crime family. It’s like organized crime.”
Meanwhile, it appears that the Obama-Lynch DOJ sought to obstruct the investigation. In case you missed it, Lynch is a top Clinton candidate to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.
Oh, and don’t forget: even before Comey’s announcement, 65% of Americans believed Hillary broke the law with her server, and a majority — 53% — believed she should have been indicted.
Today, you can rest assured, that number is higher.
It gets even worse.
While Team Clinton was doing everything imaginable to demonize Comey — James Carville actually ranted on MSNBC that the FBI had teamed up with the GOP and the KGB to besmirch her — Joe Biden went completely off-script, going on CNN to say “Look, I’ve found [Comey] to be a straight guy…he’s always been straight. And I’m confident that this will turn out fine.”
You’d almost think someone was upset about being pushed out of the 2016 race.
But it wasn’t just Biden. Barack Obama endorsed Comey too, announcing through his spokesman that Comey was a man of integrity and in no way trying to influence the Presidential election.
You just know Hillary threw a lamp at someone when she heard that.
And it gets even worse than that. This week saw the second firing of a DNC Chair for corruption in just four months.
In July, on the very day the Democrat National Convention opened, Debbie Wasserman Schultz was forced out when 20,000 Wikileaks emails proved the DNC had rigged the primaries against Bernie Sanders. (Hillary hired her immediately, apparently because she doesn’t have enough to do representing her Congressional district, and because Team Clinton only hires known fraudsters.)
Hillary replaced her at the DNC with Donna Brazile. Brazile is a longtime offender, from her (openly) radical days with Jesse Jackson, to getting fired by Mike Dukakis for skulduggery, to leading Al Gore’s quest to steal the 2000 Presidential election (because, as you know, you can’t question the legitimacy of an election without endangering democracy).
If you watched Brazile’s epic meltdown under questioning by Megyn Kelly after the final debate, you already know where this is going:
Confronted with the Wikileaks proof that she had stolen debate questions and fed them to Hillary Clinton, Brazile — one of the most experienced operatives on Earth — simply fell apart on live TV.
And well she should have. This week came proof that this wasn’t the only time, that she’d done it in the primaries too, cheating poor Bernie Sanders.
The Clinton News Network (CNN) fired her — the sitting Chairman of the Democratic National Committee — on Monday.
But you know who didn’t fire her? The DNC. The second DNC Chair in a year to get caught red-handed helping Hillary Clinton commit yet another federal crime, rigging the primary against Sanders and the general election debates against Trump, still has her job leading Hillary’s party.
And you know who faced no repercussions whatsoever? The one who actually cheated: Hillary Rodham Clinton.
That’s your next President, folks, if we don’t stop her.
The debates aren’t the only thing rigged. In the aftermath of Comey’s announcement, somehow magically, neither “FBI emails” nor any variant thereof rated as a trending topic on any of Twitter, Facebook, Buzzfeed or Snapchat.
Here’s Twitter that night:
Anyone following Drudge knows that reports of ballot fraud are coming in daily, including numerous instances of voting machines switching votes from Trump to Clinton, yet never somehow from Clinton to Trump. (And if it’s happening where it can easily be dealt with in Texas, imagine what may be going on in Pennsylvania.)
Fraud takes many forms. One of them — outed by Wikileaks in an internal campaign email — turns out to be that Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta sought to have public polls oversample Dems throughout the campaign, to make Hillary look stronger than she was (or is).
Why? To encourage Ds while depressing Rs, reducing our turnout, activism and giving.
In other words, Podesta and his pollster buddies have been attempting to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
How many years has this been going on? How many times has it succeeded?
We don’t know. But we know this: it failed in David Cameron’s race. It failed in the Kentucky governor’s race. It failed against Netanyahu. It failed against Brexit.
And it can fail here too.
It takes other forms as well. For instance, various “Sanctuary Cities” — cities which openly flout immigration law and encourage illegals to settle there — are pushing to let illegal aliens vote.
(In case you missed it, cracking down on Sanctuary Cities is a central Trump promise, just as legalizing every illegal — along with 1 million Syrian Muslims — and having them voting by 2020 is a key Clinton plank. Yes, Hillary means to steal the country, irrevocably.)
There are more stories than a hundred newsletters could cover. But let’s just go with this one. It turns out that Hillary proposed rigging the 2006 Palestinian elections.
If she’ll do it overseas, do you seriously doubt she’d do it for herself?
The worst form of rigging, of course, is violence and voter intimidation. The Democrats, as in Klan days, have been doing that too.
As National Review reports (no friends of Trump they), James O’Keefe’s latest undercover sting proves that Hillary Clinton personally directed plans to incite violence at Trump rallies. This revelation, of course, comes on the heels of a Democrat firebombing of a GOP headquarters in North Carolina.
Why do such a thing? Well you tell me: does the meaningful chance that you’ll be beaten up or even killed increase or decrease the average person’s desire to go volunteer?
Caught, the DNC immediately fired Scott Foval of Democracy Partners, and Hillary quickly sacked Robert Creamer, a top aide, for their roles in the year-long Brown Shirt campaign. But of course they couldn’t be honest about it.
So back to Donna Brazile. In the first half of that Megyn Kelly interview I showed you earlier, Kelly pushed the DNC chair on these revelations. It wasn’t pretty:
And yet somehow this woman is still DNC Chair, and Hillary Clinton is not under indictment for attempted murder.
Are you beginning to see the stakes this Tuesday?
A postscript on that, from Fox News’s John Roberts:
Yeah, no kidding.
When Donald Trump suggested at the end of the final debate that he wouldn’t tamely pre-accept whatever dishonest result the Democrats might hand him, these are the things he was thinking about. No doubt, he was also remembering Al Gore’s attempt to “count until we win” in 2000 (and Al Franken’s, and Christine Gregoire’s, and…).
The Democrat-NeverTrump Axis, of course, went instantly apoplectic, assuring us that a refusal to pre-accept all results was “threatening democracy,” conveniently ignoring that is many states, the law actually requires mandatory recounts in close races (does the law itself threaten democracy?). But honesty wasn’t really at issue for the “paint Trump a fascist” crowd.
Fortunately, the voters disagree. Fully 60% believe candidates shouldn’t accept early results if they suspect fraud. And not only that, 58% believe voter fraud is a serious problem; 69% believe a photo ID should be required to vote.
It occurs to me: the idea that we should just blindly trust “the system” in such matters would have utterly horrified the Founding Fathers, even without the blatant corruption we’re seeing this year.
The Founders believed in a system in which people constantly questioned their government, and could trust it precisely because they were constantly looking over its shoulder. They didn’t trust the media. They didn’t trust poll workers. They frequently didn’t even trust each other.
That’s the price of freedom. If you want to tamely trust, you are suited only for the slavery you’re quickly getting.
This is, of course, why Trump won the nomination: he fights. And perhaps he’s exactly what we need for a restoration after all.
So let’s come full circle and look at the polls.
Trump is now beating Clinton 53-43 among voters who’ve made up their minds. That’s a very, very big deal: she’s the de facto incumbent, and all things considered, this is likely to break toward the challenger.
This morning, IBD – the most accurate poll of 2012 – has the race all tied up. Rasmussen does too, as does Gravis. The L.A. Times has Trump up +5. Marist has Clinton +1, Fox has Clinton +2, ABC and CBS Clinton +3, all within the margin of error in a year when most pollsters seem to be assuming Obama-level black turnout.
They won’t get it, not by a longshot. And even a 10-point drop in black turnout, coupled with a 5-point increase among white Republicans, would flip the race to Trump.
Early voting indications aren’t favoring her. Right now, Hillary supposedly leads by 8 among early voters in Florida (no one really knows, of course). At this point in 2012, Obama was leading by 11. In Ohio, she’s leading by about 20 among early voters; Obama led by 30.
One would assume that Hillary’s being the first female nominee would help her. In fact, it’s a net -1%. Moreover, IBD just reported that “Trump’s Woman Problem Appears to Have Disappeared“, with Trump matching Mitt Romney (and Hillary doing no better than Obama) among women. Hillary is underperforming Obama among men.
ABC finds that Trump has opened up an 8-point lead in honesty. That’s a first, and a very bad sign for the Hildebeast.
Where Trump is really shining is working class whites: 50% vs. Romney’s 35%. Historically these folks break to the Democrats at the end: the opposite is happening this year, at least so far. And that includes working class women, which the Democrats never imagined.
State by state, there’s a reason Hillary is seemingly spending all her time – and buying ads for the first time – in the Rust Belt. One poll has Michigan all tied up: it was Clinton +13 three weeks ago. Fox 2 Detroit and Detroit Free Press have it Clinton +3 and +4 respectively, within the margin of error. Remington has Wisconsin Clinton +4. Harper has Pennsylvania tied, Remington and Susquehanna have it Clinton +2, Gravis has it Clinton +1.
At the beginning we talked about New Hampshire: today it’s all Trump. Boston Globe and UMass have it all tied up, WBUR has it Trump +1, Gravis has it Trump +2, and ARG has it Trump +5.
Remember, just Thursday New Hampshire was in the Clinton column. If the map at the beginning of this Report holds up, this switch by itself is enough for The Donald to tie the Electoral College at 269 all.
In Maine, Trump is up in CD-2, and within 4 statewide. In Virginia, which everyone had written off, it’s Clinton +5 with Trump surging. In Colorado, also written off, University of Denver and Gravis both have it tied, while Trafalgar has it Clinton +1.
Trump is shooting up – and already ahead – in Iowa. He’s ahead (barely) in North Carolina, though one poll — WRAL — has it Trump +7, and he’s trending strongly up with Clinton strongly down (Burr is also up, McCrory down but within the margin of error). The Trump surge in Nevada looks unstoppable, though the level of cheating in Las Vegas remains high. McMullin has stalled in Utah: Trump should win it handily.
That leaves the big two. This minute, Trump has a solid lead — +5 in both Quinnipiac and Remington – in Ohio. And in Florida, it’s neck-and-neck, but registered Republicans hold a slim lead in early voting – not normal – and Rubio is +4 in Fox 13’s poll, +6 in Quinnipiac.
So once again, Trump is surging, there’s reason to believe virtually all the polls are badly overestimating black turnout, and assuming this map holds…
…if Trump can win any of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia or New Hampshire plus Maine CD-2, he’s the next President of the United States.
And if not, get ready for the Mafia state to come.
Even now, some of our friends fail to see the necessity of what many still consider a distasteful choice. I understand. As you know, I supported my friend Ted Cruz and ultimately became a bundler.
If you still don’t understand what a Hillaryesque Supreme Court will mean for the next 40 years, I can’t help you. If you don’t grasp that the corruption we’re uncovering now is the tiniest fraction of the corruption to come, I don’t know what to say. I’ve spilled enough ink on all of that.
But I do want to encourage you to grasp a bit of what ultimately swayed me.
A vote is not an endorsement. An endorsement is an endorsement. A vote is a choice, between two possible outcomes. Refusing to vote is refusing to choose, but it is itself a choice, to be irresponsible without actually avoiding responsibility.
I don’t have to like my choices. I frequently don’t, in voting or in other things. I do have to choose the outcome least likely to harm — or at least likely to do the least harm — to those for whom I’m responsible.
I’d add just this, and I think it’s important.
Those who adored (because there’s no better word for it) Donald Trump in the primaries mostly do not appreciate the flaws some of us see. They just wanted to overthrow those in the Establishment we’ve been fighting all our lives.
So it’s important to remember: Trump and Cruz together swept the field, and wiped out a generation of so-called Republican “leadership”.
We may or may not be entirely pleased with Donald Trump. But I am extremely pleased with that. God willing, we can build on it, in a Trump Administration and beyond.
So let me close this with a simple request: you don’t have to love Donald Trump. You don’t have to endorse him. But for the sake of all we hold dear, for our children and grandchildren, our Constitution, our heritage, our religious liberty, our gun rights, our economic future, our party, for everything we’ve ever fought for, please: vote on Tuesday for Donald J. Trump.
And may God shed His grace on our dear beloved America.
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P.S. Whatever you do, get everyone you know to the polls. The Democrats are.
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