by Rod D. Martin
October 3, 2018

The latest Fox News poll shows Republicans making important strides in several key Senate races. And there’s more. Fox finds the same collapse in the Dem enthusiasm advantage as NPR.

But that’s far from all.

In Arizona, McSally is within the margin of error with Sinema (D-AZ) for the first time, down by two (47-45). And she’s surging.

In Indiana, incumbent Dem Donnelly remains within the margin of error with Republican Mike Braun (with idiot Libertarian Lucy Brenton, at 6%, potentially throwing the race to the Dems). The Fox poll (and story) don’t account, however, for the fact that Donnelly has announced he’s voting no on Kavanaugh, and that’s not playing well in Indiana at all. A big Braun surge is highly possible.

In Missouri, Hawley (R) remains tied with the incumbent McCaskill (D). But other polls I’ve given you show Hawley leading, and as I posted a few days ago, McCaskill’s stand on Kavanaugh is also causing her significant problems, especially among married women.

In North Dakota — as tossup just weeks ago — Democrat incumbent Heidi Heitkamp is now pretty much toast, losing to Republican challenger Kevin Cramer 53-41. Plus, if she votes for Kavanaugh, she loses Democrats, while if she votes against him, she loses everybody else.

And in Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn — who at one point was down by a whopping 18 points — is now beating Democrat Phil Bredesen 48-43. Yes, that’s outside the margin of error, her best showing of the entire race and up from a tie two weeks ago.

This is just one poll. Despite it being Fox, it’s not a poll I like much: I think their polling is usually problematic, albeit better than, say, ABC News or PPP.

The thing is, this poll tends to oversample Ds (as strange as that may seem, being Fox). Which means, if they’re turning up this sort of numbers, there’s a pretty good chance that the other things I’ve been showing you are as solid as I think they are.

Or to put that another way: if these races are roughly where Fox says (and I think a couple of them are doing better than this), and the enthusiasm gap that’s been favoring Ds all year has “evaporated” (in the words of NPR, which, again, is not our friend); AND if the numbers I’ve been showing you the past few days on the effect of the Kavanaugh “scandal” on key state electorates hold true…

…then we may be about to have a very good year.

I stress the word “may”, of course. But let’s just say that the Kavanaugh matter doesn’t appear to be playing out the way Democrats hoped, not one little bit.

Fox News Poll: Republicans Make Gains in Top Senate Races
Image linked to article at Fox News

— Fox News Poll: Republicans Advancing in Senate Races originally appeared as a Facebook post by Rod D. Martin.