The Rod Martin Report – August 14, 2018
Ron DeSantis for Florida Governor
Democrats Suddenly Want Secure Elections? Here’s How.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
Realignment? Blacks & Hispanics Begin Embracing Trump
Dinesh D’Souza’s New Movie: Go See It Now
Last week’s special election in Ohio produced a great deal of speculation about whether Republicans will (catastrophically) lose the House of Representatives come November.
It’s possible, as I’ve been warning you since late last year. But here’s my (as usual, contrarian) take.
The morning after, the Wall Street Journal made a good case for a big Republican defeat in “The Red Wave Illusion“. They certainly have history on their side. The party in the White House almost always loses in the mid-terms. 2002 is the only exception in memory (though it did go for us).
There’s certainly no doubt that the OH-12 race was a lot closer than it should have been, at least superficially. Moreover, I have been sounding the alarm about an enthusiasm gap — Democrats more fired up to actually turn out and vote than Republicans — since late last year. Midterms are low-turnout elections, so if one side is more excited than the other, it tends to win. Plus, Democrats remain ahead on the generic Congressional ballot, which obviously isn’t a good thing.
Still, I have my doubts. Rather strong ones, actually, just as I did at this time two years ago. And guess who got it right in 2016. It wasn’t the Wall Street Journal.
Let’s start with that Ohio-12 race. Yes, it’s absolutely true that Republicans have only lost that district one time since 1938 (specifically, 1980); it’s also true that Trump carried the district by 11. Superficially, it should not have been close.
Superficially. But that’s not the whole story, nor is the whole story being reported by a leftwing media that’s abandoned journalism for “all advocacy all the time”. So we have to consider the missing pieces, as we did in 2016.
First, the Republican candidate was significantly worse at being a candidate than was his Democrat opponent. A “generic Republican” wasn’t on the ballot: Troy Balderson and Danny O’Connor were, with all their personal gifts, deficits and quirks. If they’d been running for class president, it would have been O’Connor (the Democrat) by a mile. This point can’t be ignored.
Second, if midterms are low turnout, special elections are 1,000% worse. So the parties’ campaigning and GOTV (Get Out The Vote) efforts matter far, far more. In OH-12, as the other high-profile special elections over the past year, the Democrats threw everything at it plus the kitchen sink. Everything the DNC had, plus the DCCC, plus not just the Ohio party but six state Democrat parties threw their field staff, cash, everything at winning in Ohio.
The Republicans did too, no doubt, but that’s not the point: the electorate on Tuesday was not vaguely similar to the electorate this November, or to the one in November 2016. It was heavily distorted in both directions by party intensity and voter apathy that won’t be repeated.
And even more to the point: in November, with 435 House races, more than 60 of which will be competitive, neither side will be able to focus that kind of fire anywhere. Hence, there will be a reversion to the mean, in several respects.
Why have the Democrats focused such fire on one-off special elections like OH-12? To build a “win psychology”: to convince their own people and everyone else that there really will be a “Blue Wave”, by winning races that don’t really show that but which might become a self-fulfilling prophesy. It’s good strategy and it might well work: it’s certainly what I’d do. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore what’s really going on. And what’s going on includes a uniform media narrative that paints every move as “proving” the “Blue Wave” theory, and ignores every move that contradicts it, just as in 2016.
In any case, Donald Trump is not wrong when he points out that despite all of this, Republicans are winning nearly all of these races, including OH-12. Democrats respond that “we didn’t have to win”. Really?
Third — and I think this is perhaps the most significant point, and certainly the most under-reported — the Democrat/Enemedia Complex are not the only people out to get Donald Trump. Ohio Governor John Kasich, who hates Trump so much he even refused to attend a Republican National Convention his own state hosted, did everything in his power to undermine Troy Balderson, hoping to push O’Connor over the top and cost Republicans the House. You know, “for the good of the country” and all that. It’s hard to understand why Kasich remains popular in Ohio, but he does, and his use of the tremendous power of his office against his own party’s nominee was a lot to overcome. It’s redundant to call Kasich a narcissistic RINO traitor. But Kasich is a narcissistic RINO traitor. And he pushed on the scales here, hard.
But enough of Ohio. The rest is simpler. That enthusiasm gap? Gone since June, as most recently evidenced by this story in the Palm Beach Post. By most measures, Republicans realize what’s at stake and are more excited about November than the Nutroots. That could change — and the Democrats’ purpose in OH-12 was to demoralize us and thus change it — but it remains true. And given 2016, I wouldn’t bet heavily that Republican voters will become less likely to vote over time; rather, they’re far more likely to intensify after Labor Day and continue into November. They know the deluge follows if they don’t. Moreover, the generic ballot may look bad for Republicans, but all is not quite as it seems. While it’s true the Democrats are leading — and have been, consistently, for over a year — what is also true is that in modern times, the Republicans have won without fail whenever the Democrats have led by 5 points or less. Remember how the pollsters oversampled Democrats in 2016, producing grossly off-base results? Well, it wasn’t the first time that had happened, nor has it stopped.
So if D+5 equals a GOP win, where are we right now?
Rasmussen — widely considered the most pro-Republican poll, but also the most accurate poll in 2016 (other than Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group) — has the race D+5: on the edge, but still good.
But two other polls are out since Rasmussen, neither of which has ever been accused of leaning Republican. The Economist/YouGov poll has the race just D+3. And Reuters/Ipsos has it a mere D+2.
That’s down from D+18 in January.
If those numbers hold, expect the Rs not only to hold their majority but possibly to pick up a few seats. It might not be a “Red Wave”, but it would certainly be the Democrats crashing on the rocks.
Now, short of that long-promised “Blue Wave”, the Senate is quite another matter. Here’s the current map. Grey states are currently considered tossups, but they’re not the only potential tossups, nor are all of these tossups that hard to call.
As I’ve been telling you all year, Republicans stand to pick up several U.S. Senate seats, most definitely including Florida (Rick Scott vs. the awful Bill Nelson). Ted Cruz has a real race in Texas, but not a real threat (the Texas Lyceum poll last week oversampled Ds by 50% and still showed Cruz leading; Quinnipiac wasn’t much better).
Josh Hawley has a strong shot at unseating Claire McCaskill in Missouri just as Mike Braun looks good to unseat Joe Donnelly in Indiana. Kevin Cramer has a real shot at Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, and likely a much better one should Heitkamp vote against Brett Kavanaugh.
Likewise, Montana is more competitive than advertised, though West Virginiais likely less, but both would shift decidedly toward the R column if the incumbent joined his own party against confirmation. Heller’s closing the gap in Nevada and Blackburn is still quite competitive in Tennessee.
So assuming Arizona goes well, all things considered, I would reasonably expect to see an expanded GOP Senate majority of 54 seats (compared to current 51), with a decent chance of as many as 57 (which would be a post-Great Depression record for the GOP).
They say rightly that a week is an eternity in politics: all of this is subject to all manner of changes over the next three months. But as things stand, I think the CW (conventional wisdom) is about as wrong as it was two years ago.
But just as was the case two years ago, it’s going to take all of us, doing everything we can do, to make that a reality. So saddle up, boys and girls. It’s time to ride.
Speaking of Congress, our friend Ron DeSantis dropped by Grace Hall last week. We discussed his plans for Florida for an hour and a half or so, just before he went to a rally at Northwest Florida State with Donald Trump, Jr. (he should have brought the younger Trump with him, but alas, Don Jr. was busy deep sea fishing, one of the singular attractions here in Destin).
If you aren’t from Florida, you may know Congressman DeSantis as one of those “troublesome young men” like our own Congressman Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Mark Meadows and Devin Nunes (among others) who are holding the Deep State’s feet to the fire, in Congressional hearings and on cable news, day-in and day-out.
When do you remember such tireless courage out of Republican officials? Hardly ever, hardly ever in House, and hardly ever with such tenacity and quality.
Ron DeSantis is running for Governor of Florida. His primary is August 28. If you’ve watched the debates (the Fox News debate is here), you know it’s really a no-brainer choice: the Harvard and Yale-educated JAG Corps lawyer — who served in Iraq with SEAL Team One — wiped up the floor with poor Adam Putnam, previously the frontrunner. He’s leading Putnam by 12 points right now.
Unfortunately, he’s only leading uber-leftist Gwen Graham — scion of the Graham dynasty — by 1. There’s no question he’s the Republican to beat her. The question is whether the third largest state might hand power to the Democrats for the first time in 20 years.
Even if you’re not from Florida, I’m asking you to get behind Ron DeSantis. He’s earned our support. And America can’t afford to lose Florida to the left. It’s that simple. This is a must-win race. And we need all of you, 100%.
Ron’s website is at RonDeSantis.com. Sign up, give early, and give often.
And did I mention Florida’s horrible Senator Bill Nelson? Why yes, yes I did.
Out of the blue, Nelson announced that “Russians have hacked Florida’s election systems”. He offered zero evidence. What’s worse, no one backed his play. The FBI and CIA were silent. Florida election officials not only contradicted him: they pointed out that when last they spoke with Nelson, he said nothing about Russian hacking.
Then, just to make things even more embarassing, the Democrat election chiefs in South Florida — Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade Counties — contradicted Nelson too.
Now I can understand why Bill Nelson has lost his mind: he needs a pre-emptive excuse for the drubbing Rick Scott is going to give him come November. But he’s certainly not the only Democrat with Russia Fever. Countless Democrats accused the Ohio Green Party of working with the Russians in OH-12 last week too. Here’s a representative sample:
You know what sucks?
Because of our unwillingness to pass policy that protects our election integrity, I immediately think the Green Party votes tonight are Russian meddling.
Why else would anyone cast a protest vote in Ohio when there’s so much at stake?#OH12
— Alyssa Milano (@Alyssa_Milano) August 8, 2018
You just can’t make this stuff up.
But this mindset isn’t safe. If everything that stands in the way of a Democrat winning is Russia, then everyone who stands in the way of a Democrat winning is a traitor and worthy of execution. There’s no escaping that, just like if Trump is Hitler, then surely anything anyone does to stop Trump — no matter how extreme or how violent — is not merely justified but morally necessary.
This sickness is a cancer on the body politic.
Not shockingly, Michael Moore (hawking a new “documentary”) is taking this to its logically necessary extreme, calling for a “real insurgency” — he stresses “real” several times — and saying “Trump will be the last President of the United States”. Presumably this is a call for a violent overthrow not just of Trump but of the entire U.S. government. It’s hard to see what else it could be.
All of this tracks with the rise of the leftwing domestic terror group called Antifa, it’s very name a callback to the Communist thugs who fought the Brownshirts for control of Germany in the 1920s and early 1930s: either way, Germany was getting a dictator. Their violence is escalating dramatically, as are their threats: they’re now promising to “do Trump like Gaddafi”.
Which makes perfect sense if the Enemedia spends all day every day telling us that the President is a foreign agent who’s literally worse than Hitler. But they also said GWB was Hitler. And they said McCain and Romney were Hitler. So with each passing day, they become more consistent with their presuppositions. And with each passing day, the danger of something truly serious grows.
Ironically, one of the unintended consequences of all this is the growing call by some Democrats (i.e., those who aren’t in on the game) for more secure elections, even paper ballots! The horror! Yet, if you claim to care about people “hacking our democracy”, shouldn’t you want to make our elections, well, unhackable?
No, Democrats do not now and never have in all of history ever wanted that.
Nevertheless, for those who are starting to see the light — that honest elections are a positive good — here’s some help. How do you have a secure election? It’s not really all that hard.
1. First and foremost, paper ballots. They can’t be hacked electronically, and all the ways to cheat with them are well understood and easily policed by people with minimal training (and zero technical know-how).
2. Photo IDs. Simple, because everyone has to have one for virtually everything anyway, and they prevent people from pretending to be someone they’re not. (And by the way, the idea that black people don’t have or can’t get IDs is itself racist: shame on the people who make such condescending, ludicrous arguments.)
3. Pre-election voter registration. Democrats claim this “suppresses the vote”, but even if that were true (and it isn’t), it would be a small price to pay. If the last day to register is several weeks before the election, rather than the election day registration Democrats support, there’s no way to overwhelm harried, busy election officials on Election Day with fake voters attempting to register en masse, and there’s plenty of time to make sure people are who they say they are.
4. Elections on one day. Again, motor voter and weeks of early voting are enormous invitations for fraud. Relatively small groups of fraudsters can vote in multiple locations over several weeks, or mail in fraudulent ballots (as one prominent Democrat actually encouraged this week, calling on Progressives to vote their children’s mail-in ballots for them). Holding the election on a single day makes this far more difficult, especially in combination with my other simple measures. (And no, I am not forgetting the need for absentee ballots, especially for our military, but there’s a way to handle that reasonably securely too.) And…
5. Inked thumbs. Yes, this worked brilliantly in Iraq and Afghanistan — indeed, this, along with the rest of my suggestions, is the system we recommended and implemented to secure the elections in those war-torn countries — so why not in America? The catch is, for it to work, you have to have the election on a single day (see item 4). But indelibly-inked thumbs combined with photo ID make it effectively impossible for anyone to vote more than once, just as pre-election voter registration and photo IDs combine to make it far harder for illegal aliens to vote.
Oh, did I just mention illegal aliens? They’re the main reason Democrats oppose every single thing I just said. Because make no mistake, they’ve become the core of Democrats’ electoral hopes.
But those darn Russians: they may just get the Democrats to let us secure our elections against actual fraud after all. And this is how.
If Democrats are desperate — if they are focused on non-issues and even on violence — it really is because their arguments are falling apart, right before their eyes.
James Carville famously imposed message discipline on the 1992 Clinton campaign with his War Room sign, “It’s the Economy, Stupid”. He was right (even if he, his boss and the Enemedia systematically lied about GHWB’s economy to win).
The Trump economy, however, is no lie. Even the Enemedia is having trouble hiding it.
Yes, that’s a CNN screenshot. You know, they of #FakeNews? And the only thing #Fake in that shot is Donald Trump’s approval rating (Gallup, oversampling Democrats as usual, has him at 40%: Rasmussen has him more accurately at 50%).
Can you just imagine what it would be if 90%+ of his coverage weren’t negative?(No, that’s not an exaggeration.) Obama only managed 45% with the media slobbering all over him.
Anyway, back to those economic numbers. U.S. workers are seeing the biggest wage and benefit increases in a decade, Obama’s “lost decade”. And it’s not just that existing workers are making more: Hispanic and black unemployment are at their lowest levels in American history. No wonder millions of Americans have dropped off of Food Stamps since Trump took office.
Indeed, for the very first time in all of history, America has more job openings that job seekers: hundreds of thousands more.
As a result of the Trump tax cuts, and of the President’s slashing of 22 regulations for every one new regulation enacted, the U.S. just regained its place as the world’s most competitive economy. That’s especially true of the one area of the U.S. economy that Democrats have promised us since the Clinton Era could never come back: manufacturing. Indeed, the U.S. manufacturing job market hasn’t been so strong in a quarter century as plants reopen across America.
But it wasn’t the truth. It was a lie, a lie to cover for a creeping socialism its proponents understood and intended to deindustrialize America, to shrink economic growth, to foster dependency and centralize control. It’s not that the left doesn’t know their economic policies produce these awful results: it’s that they want what comes from those results more.
Capitalism matters. Freedom, entrepreneurship and innovation matter. Socialism, “democratic” or otherwise, stifle and destroy all of the above, deliberately. And it needs an excuse for the suffering it inflicts.
In any case, those economic numbers go a long way toward explaining this:
But a lot more terrifying for the Democrats — and thus explaining a lot of their hysteria — is who those 50% are. Last week, Rasmussen found that Trump’s support among black voters has hit an incredible 29%, up from just 8% on Election Day. (Rasmussen also found a 10-point gain among Hispanics.) Black leaders in Chicago, abandoned by their Democrat government in a city swept by violence, are calling on the President to save their city. The #WalkAway movement is gaining momentum. Terrified of losing its rank-and-file, the AFL-CIO is refusing to rule out endorsing Trump in 2020.
And then there’s Kanye:
There is no election math in this world that allows Democrats to win a national election if they lose 29% of the black vote, period. I don’t know if they’ll lose 29%. I don’t know if Trump can turn a 29% approval rating into 29% of the vote, I don’t know if that 29% is merely personal or rather issues-based in a way that could help other Republicans, and I don’t know if it will last.
But the question Democrats have to ask themselves is this: is 29% all they’re going to lose? And if not, how bad is it going to get?
This 29% won’t affect 2018. But it could matter as much in 2020 — and after 2020 — as was the Trump realignment in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Donald Trump has a winning formula. Shut off Democrats’ access to fraudulent socialist Third World voters (the wall and meaningful border enforcement) — which is to say, don’t let Democrats rig the game against actual citizens and legal immigrants — and then deliver real results for black and Hispanic Americans, something Democrats have utterly failed to do.
That formula could make the left’s truism “Demography is Destiny” a reality. But it won’t come true at all the way they planned.
One last thing before we go. Dinesh D’Souza’s latest movie, “Death of a Nation: Can We Save America a Second Time?” is in theatres now. In it, Dinesh shows painfully clearly how the American Eugenics Movement (of which Planned Parenthood was then and is now a part) and the Democrats’ terror wing (the KKK) inspired developments in Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, and how those same beliefs produce many of the tragic things we see today.
It’s an eye-opener. You need to see it, and support it. And you need to take friends.
You can read about the world anywhere. You come to RodMartin.org to understand it. The Rod Martin Report was the most accurate analysis of 2016. Do your friends a favor and pass it along; and remember, there’s a lot more we publish each week that doesn’t make the newsletter.
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