by Rod D. Martin
March 14, 2012

Newt had a big day last week.  In Georgia.  And his comeback this week in Alabama and Mississippi didn’t quite come off.

So where do things stand now?

The facts are simple – 1. Newt won almost as many delegates yesterday as if he’d come in first place; but 2. Rick is catching fire, and that’s taking on a life of its own.  His $1.7 million haul from a reception last weekend at the Council for National Policy speaks volumes.

I’m staying with Newt. Here’s what’s going to happen.

Regardless of whether Newt wins, loses or draws, Newt and Rick are on the brink of depriving Mitt Romney of a majority.

There are three possible results which can come from that. First, there is the very real (but fast diminishing) chance that either Newt or Rick could win outright, with all three candidates continuing. Second, Santorum can cut a deal with Newt (or vice versa) and almost guarantee that one of those two men becomes the nominee. Or third, there can be a brokered convention.

Now regardless of all the propaganda spew from Dick Morris, a nomination decided at the Convention does NOT hurt our chances at all. Here’s why:

1. The media will have to cover our guys — for free — from here until they’re “not news”. A brokered convention forces wall-to-wall coverage, dramatically cutting the amount of cash they have to raise. Contrast this to 1996, when Dole clinched early, just to have the entire media ignore him (and boost Clinton) for the entire spring and summer. Without coverage, he looked as dead in the water as he was.

2. Without a single candidate, the media — and Obama — can’t focus fire. You saw some of this in the past two weeks, when Newt’s attacks on Obama’s energy policy drew blood, but the White House was reduced to “whoever says that is a liar”. Maybe, but they didn’t name “whoever”, because they couldn’t name Newt without shifting the momentum of the race in his favor. NOTE: This especially helps Romney, who can’t afford the full, concentrated barrage he’ll get over a “victorious” summer. But effectively, it puts three guys in the ring going after one tired, on-the-ropes boxer who can’t hit anybody because he’s too busy trying to stay up. And it does this in a race where “Generic Republican” is still beating Obama by ten.

3. The Convention will be the most watched in history. The Democrats’ convention will be ignored, as will Obama all summer long.

4. Romney will not be the nominee: having blown “inevitability”, there is almost zero chance he will be rewarded with what he couldn’t win at the ballot box. If Santorum comes close but does it with pizazz, he probably gets the nod: Newt’s delegates can put him over the top. If on the other hand Rick fizzles, Newt could easily win the Convention — everyone still wants to see him debate Obama — or a consensus candidate could be found outside the hall like Jeb Bush. Regardless, the nominee will probably be conservative, probably unite the party, and probably have all the momentum necessary to blow away an Obama who’ll have virtually no time to adjust.

Bottom line: a brokered convention puts all the excitement on our side, and negates most of the inherent advantages the Democrats hold. They’ll still have the unions, ACORN and so forth. What they won’t have is time to focus the troops on a single hated enemy, or to jazz them up about a President whose luster is gone.

Again, if I were Rick Santorum, I would not pass Go, I would not collect $200, I would go directly to see Newt Gingrich and pay whatever price it takes to forge a unity coalition. I say “price” because at the Convention, Newt presently holds the balance, and that’s worth more than a pat on the head (thank God: we need Newt!). But I also say “deal”: it’s the only way Santorum can possibly guarantee a win.

Whether Newt should take that deal is another matter. But either way, I’m sticking. Newt Gingrich’s continued success is the surest guarantee of real change in America. Whether that comes by his being President or it comes by his anointing one, he is still the man for this hour. And we should keep fighting to win him as many delegates as humanly possible until and unless he says “stop”.

(The preceding was originally a Facebook status update.)

 

Rod D. Martin is a leading futurist, technology entrepreneur, author and activist from Destin, Florida. He was part of PayPal’s pre-IPO startup team, serving as special counsel to founder and CEO Peter Thiel, and also served as policy director to former Governor Mike Huckabee. He is Founder and CEO of The Martin Organization, whose portfolio of companies includes Galectin Therapeutics (NASDAQ: GALT), Advanced Search Laboratories, Proxomo Software, Agincourt Ventures and the 10 X Fund.  His charitable and church work is central to all he does, and he further engages our culture as President of the National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA), as founder of The Vanguard Project, as a widely sought-after speaker and as author of such books as his forthcoming The Imperative of Excellence.