First of all, it's hard to buy the rule that these transformations occur every 50 years, "like clockwork". Roosevelt's first term was almost a century ago. And many of his policy initiatives, during the Depression and the war, were stupid and counterproductive. Still and all, quite a few historians agree that WWII saved his reputation (even if he died before it was over, leaving big messes for Truman to deal with, in eastern Europe and next in Korea.)
Aside from that, Friedman seems careful to avoid specifics in his prognostication. That may be a wise policy, given that back in 1991 he published an apparently well-documented book titled "The Coming War With Japan".
His logic in that book was sound enough. It just turned out that it applied better to China, which is a large part of why Japan and the US have remained close.
As to the rest, Friedman, elaborate on the two cycles that he sees in The Storm Before the Calm. I think Neil Howe’s framework is more accurate and more useful, but it’s not strictly in either-or.
I thought that Trump was Reagan of our times, but people say he is also Roosevelt. Wow.
Or Lincoln. A transformative figure who shapes the institutional and social framework for the next 50-80 years.
Some of that’s about Trump himself, but it’s at least equally about timing. These cycles roll around like clockwork.
First of all, it's hard to buy the rule that these transformations occur every 50 years, "like clockwork". Roosevelt's first term was almost a century ago. And many of his policy initiatives, during the Depression and the war, were stupid and counterproductive. Still and all, quite a few historians agree that WWII saved his reputation (even if he died before it was over, leaving big messes for Truman to deal with, in eastern Europe and next in Korea.)
Aside from that, Friedman seems careful to avoid specifics in his prognostication. That may be a wise policy, given that back in 1991 he published an apparently well-documented book titled "The Coming War With Japan".
His logic in that book was sound enough. It just turned out that it applied better to China, which is a large part of why Japan and the US have remained close.
As to the rest, Friedman, elaborate on the two cycles that he sees in The Storm Before the Calm. I think Neil Howe’s framework is more accurate and more useful, but it’s not strictly in either-or.