Fertility and Culture: A Deep Dive

After many years of low fertility and policy efforts to raise births in various countries, many pundits conclude that nothing works. They're wrong.

NOTE: Daniel Hess’s work on the growing demographic implosion — and what to do about it — is excellent. Be sure to follow him on X. — RDM

by Daniel Hess
January 29, 2024

Those of us who have been thinking hard about demography understand that civilizational progress has been intertwined with growing population. We know that technological progress and even social justice depend on prosperity. We see Japan’s 30-year stagnation, Europe’s 15-year stagnation, and China’s current troubles and understand that this is the result of low birthrates, a shrinking workforce, and the declining innovation that comes with an aging society.

It is obvious to us that a thriving world needs people. We know that all of the predictions in Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb were wrong. We know that actually Julian Simon, writing The Ultimate Resource, had the correct view, and won their bet by showing that humanity doesn’t compete for fixed resources but creates more resources through innovation when there are …