Big Shock: Getting Married Is the Single Biggest Driver of Fertility
For all the talk of marriage becoming obsolete, a funny thing started happening since 2008: Birthrates outside of marriage fell by 28%, while birthrates within marriage held steady.
NOTE: Daniel Hess’s work on the growing demographic implosion — and what to do about it — is excellent. Be sure to follow him on X. — RDM
by Daniel Hess
April 12, 2024
With fertility rates crashing worldwide, folks are realizing that policy isn't enough, and culture matters more. What cultural element matters more than any other for fertility? Marriage, and its importance has not been fading but increasing over time.
For all the talk of marriage becoming obsolete, a funny thing started happening since 2008: Birthrates outside of marriage fell by 28%, while birthrates within marriage held steady.
What's going on?
Evolutionary psychologist Geoffrey Miller (@primalpoly) explains that the way of our ancestors, where sex drive alone sustained fertility, doesn't work anymore. Now folks can fully control when they get pregnant, and more are choosing to do so only in a stable relationship.
“Pregnancies of passion” have been plummeting with better birth control. Nowhere are birth rates collapsing faster than in South America, where marriage rates are low and surprise pregnancies had been the norm, as I explained in a popular thread.
For all the talk of marriage becoming obsolete, marriage is still the main driver of births in most countries, as this chart by @LymanStoneKY shows. As marriage rates fall, unmarried births are not picking up the slack. Instead, births rates are following marriage downward.
Another thing driving down birthrates is the trend of older marriage. Birth rates are lower when people marry later, and the reason is simple. Though fertility remains high within marriage, folks are spending fewer of their fertile years being married.
We know that more marriages at younger ages will give us higher birthrates because that happened once before — and we call that time the Baby Boom!
What about polyamory, another relationship mode getting a lot of attention these days?
It turns out that polyamory is a dud for birthrates (we know because @Aella_Girl compiled the data). Meanwhile, a number of 'poly' influencers online have now settled into... marriage and family!
So, what can we do to boost marriage and save civilization? One thing is to sell marriage to young people, and it should be an easy sell! The data says that married people tend to be happier, healthier, wealthier and live longer.
Another solution, albeit one singularly unpopular in the West, is more arranged marriage. India and Israel are both great at this, and both have enviable birthrates. It's easy -- parents, family and friends can all make introductions. Many young people are struggling and will be glad for the help!
Third, strivers out there can try the OG model of marriage and family, the one our forebears knew. What was that? Imagine marriage as an enterprise, larger than the individual. The goal was to build a family, a dynasty even. These marriages were both productive and stable.
Lastly, buy this book for a young person in your life and tell them to follow the instructions on the cover. @BradWilcoxIFS is like the Godfather of marriage studies and nobody is better at teaching how to make a success of it.
— This essay originally appeared on X. Be sure to follow him there as well as on Substack at .