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by Rod D. Martin
April 20, 2016
My quick take on last night’s New York primary, and the aftermath.
On the Republican side, Trump won big on home turf, but he won bigger behind the scenes, where he shook up his campaign staff and brought in some people who might be able to save what for over a month now has been a disaster.
The problem for Trump is that it’s really, really late in the game. Refusing to deploy proper field operations months ago — and shutting down some that existed — was boneheaded. The meme du jour is that Trump has been “winning by losing,” showing the “corruption” of the system in places like Colorado.
That’s complete spin. New York cannot change the very real danger that Trump can’t make it to 1,237: he would not be facing that problem if he’d had his act together for the last six weeks. So however adept he is at making lemonade out of lemons, the lemons are still lemons.
Cruz has the best political operation we’ve seen in modern times except for Obama’s in 2008. If Trump can’t make it to 1,237, Cruz will probably win the nomination on the second ballot.
The response to this — my own response, in fact, which I’ve been saying for months — is that if Trump loses this way, a lot of people will bolt the party. But here’s the new reality: if Trump wins, a lot of people are going to bolt the party too; and more importantly (as you read in my newsletter Saturday), a large and growing percentage of Sanders supporters say they will bolt the Democrat Party if Hillary wins too.
So does a Trump victory — or a Trump loss — guarantee GOP defeat this fall? Not necessarily. In fact, November may be the most raucous unpredictable contest in modern history, no matter who the candidates are, and with dramatically different turnout pictures depending on who’s in and who’s out.
But the bottom line remains 1,237. Trump made progress last night, and a lot more progress in hiring grown-ups to run his operation. But it’s awfully late in the game; and an open convention — which Cruz is likely to win — still remains the most likely bet.
On the Democrat side, Hillary won her (sort of) home state. But she certainly didn’t blow it away like Trump did. She got 139 delegates. Bernie Sanders got 106.
What this means is that Sanders is still just 246 delegates (out of 2,383 needed to win, not the 1,237 we’re used to hearing on the Republican side) behind. Yeah, yeah, superdelegates blah blah blah. As I keep saying, the superdelegates will flip to Sanders if he wins the pledged delegates (even Bill Clinton agrees). Last night did nothing to diminish the prospect that he might yet do just that.
It’s probably worth noting also that a sufficiently negative FBI report, even in lieu of an actual indictment, could flip enough superdelegates to get Bernie over the top, if he can keep the race this close. I’m not predicting that. I’m merely pointing it out.
Close is dangerous for Clinton, even if she’s leading. There are still a lot of races left. And a lot of them are out west, where Bernie has been romping and stomping.
So while it is still probable that Hillary will be the nominee, it is still more than a bit uncertain. And the growing trend in the polling showing that a large percentage of Sanders supporters will bolt the party if she’s the nominee is ominous for November. Even more than for Republicans, a Democrat victory is necessarily about turnout. Dent that significantly, and Hillary is doomed.
Ergo, my great and continued interest in Sanders. Every day he remains a serious contender makes it that much harder for Hillary to pull her party back together. Even now, it is not at all clear that she can.
Rod is one of our nation’s leading minds. He’s smart, original, and very committed—a combination that one rarely finds.
Rod Martin and [former Howard Dean campaign manager] Joe Trippi are America’s two foremost experts on online politics.
Rod Martin is a Reaganite-Thatcherite conservative…[and] a man who has spent much of his life ministering to and working for the benefit of others. I know Rod as an advocate for freedom, a leader who understands the real changes we need in Washington, and who has the drive and ability to make those changes happen.
Rod Martin is the kind of dynamic leader who has the knowledge, ability and experience to lead us successfully into the 21st Century. His vision for America is compelling.
Rod Martin literally wrote the book on excellence. Humble yet brilliant, a man of love and compassion, with penetrating clarity he illuminates the world around us, and we are both stirred and enlightened.
Rod Martin is a born leader and an outstanding political mind. Anyone who takes him on is going to have a serious fight on their hands.
Rod Martin is a man of uncommon vision and character. Ever since I first worked alongside Rod in the early days of PayPal, I’ve been struck by his powerful vision for the future. Rod understands the intersection of technology, politics and culture in a way that few others do.
Rod Martin wears with uncommon grace an uncanny ability to link his vigorous faith to the practical challenges of both the business world and the political arena. Yet the respect he shows for others carries a warmth and modesty that are both too rare among those who are strong advocates of feisty positions.
America badly needs more leaders who really get the future. We need more Rod Martins.
Rod Martin is a modern day philosopher-statesman. He is a capitalist intellectual, a conservative iconoclast, a gentle adversary and a kind prophet. He inspires us towards a fresh national vision built upon the original founding principles.
Rod Martin is not only effective and efficient, but he is also perceptive, wise and gracious. He gets things done. He is a great friend and a great ally.
Rod is one of the sharpest, most gracious men I know, and one of the most gifted political thinkers today. His ability to analyze issues and communicate thoughtful insights on them have earned him the respect of people across the political spectrum.
I am proud to have been Rod Martin’s friend for a quarter century, and I can tell you that he is one of the finest men and most outstanding leaders in our church and in our country today. He has a knack for turning everything he touches to success.
Rod Martin is a cornucopian entrepreneur and eutropic thinker whose influence radiates through an array of companies, institutions, movements and churches. A renaissance American, he is also a prolific friend of freedom and faith around the globe.
If Rod Martin represents the next generation of leaders, America has nothing to worry about.
A leader and a servant, in public life and in private, Rod Martin strides at the top of his profession, and has nowhere to go but up. He is in the truest sense of the word ‘outstanding’.
Rod Martin is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished thought leaders today. He is a wonderful mentor, a humble role model, and a deep inspiration for the next generation of scientific innovators and entrepreneurs.
Rod’s achievements pale beside his character and his brilliance. He sees what others can’t. He leads when others won’t.
Rod Martin is one of America’s finest young minds.
