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Politics & Economics
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Faith & Cultureby Rod D. Martin
September 5, 2018
Rasmussen today has the Generic Ballot at D+4 (46-42). This is within the safety zone — Republicans historically win the House even at D+5.
But it’s worth noting that it’s also part of a worrisome trend. Rasmussen had the race dead even two weeks ago. And other (less reliable) polls have it much worse.
The catch? Well, there are a lot of catches. For example, yesterday’s ABC News poll has it D+14 (52-38). Yeah, that sounds terrible…until you realize that ABC’s poll has about half the sample size it needs for a good poll. And also samples “registered voters” — which tend to lean D — rather than “likely voters”, which tend to reflect what’s actually going on.
Oh, and if history is any indication (because the WaPo story conveniently hides the details), this poll probably intentionally grossly oversamples Democrats. How do I know? Because they did it all through the fall of 2016, even producing a poll not long before the election that showed Trump losing and Hillary winning by a whopping 12 points.
“Oh but Rod: other polls show a similar Democrat lead.” Yes they do. And all of them have similar issues.
I’m not thrilled about these numbers. But I know how this game gets played. Fake (or fake-ish) polls are used to demoralize our side and turn out their side (to borrow their phrase, “suppress our turnout”, and our fundraising, and our activism, and whatever else they can suppress). They just ludicrously claim that having a secure election suppresses turnout, while in fact, they’re using supposedly neutral news sources to do the real thing.
It didn’t work in 2016; or at least, it didn’t work enough. Don’t let it work this time either.
Generic Congressional Ballot – Click Image for Rasmussen Reports article
— Rasmussen’s Generic Congressional Ballot originally appeared as a Facebook post by Rod D. Martin.
Rod is one of our nation’s leading minds. He’s smart, original, and very committed—a combination that one rarely finds.
Rod Martin and [former Howard Dean campaign manager] Joe Trippi are America’s two foremost experts on online politics.
Rod Martin is a Reaganite-Thatcherite conservative…[and] a man who has spent much of his life ministering to and working for the benefit of others. I know Rod as an advocate for freedom, a leader who understands the real changes we need in Washington, and who has the drive and ability to make those changes happen.
Rod Martin is the kind of dynamic leader who has the knowledge, ability and experience to lead us successfully into the 21st Century. His vision for America is compelling.
Rod Martin literally wrote the book on excellence. Humble yet brilliant, a man of love and compassion, with penetrating clarity he illuminates the world around us, and we are both stirred and enlightened.
Rod Martin is a born leader and an outstanding political mind. Anyone who takes him on is going to have a serious fight on their hands.
Rod Martin is a man of uncommon vision and character. Ever since I first worked alongside Rod in the early days of PayPal, I’ve been struck by his powerful vision for the future. Rod understands the intersection of technology, politics and culture in a way that few others do.
Rod Martin wears with uncommon grace an uncanny ability to link his vigorous faith to the practical challenges of both the business world and the political arena. Yet the respect he shows for others carries a warmth and modesty that are both too rare among those who are strong advocates of feisty positions.
America badly needs more leaders who really get the future. We need more Rod Martins.
Rod Martin is a modern day philosopher-statesman. He is a capitalist intellectual, a conservative iconoclast, a gentle adversary and a kind prophet. He inspires us towards a fresh national vision built upon the original founding principles.
Rod Martin is not only effective and efficient, but he is also perceptive, wise and gracious. He gets things done. He is a great friend and a great ally.
Rod is one of the sharpest, most gracious men I know, and one of the most gifted political thinkers today. His ability to analyze issues and communicate thoughtful insights on them have earned him the respect of people across the political spectrum.
I am proud to have been Rod Martin’s friend for a quarter century, and I can tell you that he is one of the finest men and most outstanding leaders in our church and in our country today. He has a knack for turning everything he touches to success.
Rod Martin is a cornucopian entrepreneur and eutropic thinker whose influence radiates through an array of companies, institutions, movements and churches. A renaissance American, he is also a prolific friend of freedom and faith around the globe.
If Rod Martin represents the next generation of leaders, America has nothing to worry about.
A leader and a servant, in public life and in private, Rod Martin strides at the top of his profession, and has nowhere to go but up. He is in the truest sense of the word ‘outstanding’.
Rod Martin is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished thought leaders today. He is a wonderful mentor, a humble role model, and a deep inspiration for the next generation of scientific innovators and entrepreneurs.
Rod’s achievements pale beside his character and his brilliance. He sees what others can’t. He leads when others won’t.
Rod Martin is one of America’s finest young minds.
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